In a week where polls were so wrong, predictive science may be shaken. Watching pollsters apologize this week for missing the obvious, folks wonder if the polling process has flaws. Pew Research concluded: most pollsters 'underestimated' support for the eventual winner. Duh. Were these polls out of whack due to 'nonresponse bias'-- that certain types of people don’t respond to surveys? Are non-responders a 'type' or were they were becoming grumpy at the phone's frequent ringing, listening to the hum of the robocaller connections to live pollsters? And if so much money was spent on conducting polls and research that did not predict the outcome, how about polling and surveys that track and predict technology uptake, particularly in the much-hyped category of digital health?
LeadingAge ended last week, leaving tea leaves about the future. This annual conference is the largest for the world of non-profit senior housing companies – and while much of it focuses on the tactical, a number of sessions tackled change, some of it wrenching for this industry. We already know that older adults in the future will find fewer and smaller nursing homes, and the ones remaining will be more focused on acute care, driven, as always, by payments, policies and the significance (big) of higher move-in ages. One session coached about 'abandonment' of strategies no longer needed. These changes necessitate innovation among the organization 6000 member companies – and the mix of services that these companies provide.
Partners’ Connected Health Symposium 2016 – note the aging opportunity. Over the years of this event, a session here and a speaker there occasionally talked about an aging society – and what it means. But aging is today’s health business reality. First, the first keynote was about the innovation opportunity – delivered by AARP’s JoAnn Jenkins. The pitch-off event ‘supporting cognitive function as we age’ also included AARP judges viewing submissions of the four finalists – and the Avatar for tracking health and exercise that won. Upcoming: the 2017 merger of this conference into the Personal Connected Health Alliance (PCHA) and its Connected Health Conference event (formerly known as the mHealth Summit). With material from the firms themselves, 2016 innovation winners included:
Nursing home avoidance continues for both investors and care recipients. You might have read about investors cutting back on nursing home investment within ‘healthcare’ REITS. CMS and Medicare are reimbursing less for ever-shorter nursing home stays, ending their multi-year ‘billion dollar pie eating’ wave of investment. Note that the biggest chains of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) like Signature Health Care (which has a web URL signaling LTC -- LongTerm Care) Revolution) – what might that revolution be? Consider the consumer’s first encounter with the industries for health care, long-term care (LTC), skilled nursing facility (SNF), nursing home, or post-acute facility. This terminology morass mirrors the reimbursement patterns of government agencies, which, in turn, drive investment language, behavior and labeling.
It's been a busy week that reflects growing interest in aging and new technologies. Just after the third annual Louisville Innovation Summit, some of the attendees and/or exhibitors dashed to San Francisco for the Aging 2.0 Optimize event. The founders, Stephen Johnston and Katy Fike, launched Aging 2.0 in 2012 'to pick up the pace of innovation that benefits older adults.' The program includes the Generator Ventures fund, an 'Academy' to cultivate classes annual classes of startups, distributed worldwide events, and competitions that feature finalists who participate in pitch competitions. Their flagship and well-attended Optimize event concluded today in San Francisco – with five of the exhibiting/pitching startups featured below. Information is from their websites or press materials:
Innovation featured in Louisville, Kentucky. Louisville, known for the Kentucky Derby and Bourbon, has also emerged as one of the aging care headquarter cities in the US, with some of largest providers of aging care services -- like Kindred, Signature, Atria, as well as Humana and Delta Dental, among others. This is the third year of the Louisville Innovation Summit – which provides a platform for the sponsoring organizations as well as a forum for startups and an innovation competition. Announced by the city's mayor Greg Fischer at the event, Louisville was just named as an Age Friendly Communities by one of the event's sponsors, AARP, using the framework that originated by the World Health Organization Among those exhibiting were Pharmerica, GrandCare, and LifeBio. The event also included some of the very (very) newest. All information is from the companies' or Summit website):
"Finishing up shutter installation on sliders. Need input on how to get stubborn screws in concrete loose." It’s October 5, 2016 and 125 mile per hour winds may be barreling into Florida. The streets of a neighborhood are connected and reveal what residents are doing, what they need. The residents yesterday and today are mostly online (these are their quotes) and in need – or their neighbors are online and asking for help on their behalf. They have been invited in by their neighbors, the rental agency, homeowner association office and realtors. That tool is Nextdoor, a last resort invention by a handful of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs right before before they returned money to investors.
Aren’t you tired of technology that doesn’t exist – or could hurt you? Let’s consider the technology offerings we cannot buy and perhaps do not ever want to buy. There is a growing and increasingly tedious list of them, as noted in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, ZDNet, CNET, and blah, blah, blah elsewhere. The tech companies these media influencers want you to know about include Facebook drones, self-driving cars, those ubiquitous robots, and anything that has the word Apple in the text – can you say Wall Street Journal? It is getting tough to select from the conflicting survey articles on driverless cars. The word 'fear' crops up a lot – perhaps having to do with concerns about a recent autonomous auto casualty. This gem is from today, about the cities that will lead the driverless car 'revolution.' Condolences to you if you live in one of those cities.
Some industries remain the same for 30 years – and then POW! Think back to travel agencies, bank branches, bookstores, hardware stores. Each of these ultimately were traumatized into consolidation and transformation by new entrants. Smaller players in every segment went out of business. The consumer was willing and eager to change. Online promotion of new capabilities helped them see what the existing players could not. Consider that in 2011, there were a very few indicators of the utility of tech-enabled home care. Naysayers about home care’s future in those days included some of the most entrenched.
