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The United States faces a fundamental mismatch between surging demand and insufficient capacity.

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May 2025

Future of AI in home care: behavior in the home will be used as a vital sign

Future staffing demand will force industry to rethink care strategies. According to BLS, the industry will need 4.5 million care workers by 2029 to meet the demands of older adults. According to an Argentum staffing report, in 2025 alone another 347,000 caregivers are needed for memory care. The home care and senior living industries draw from the same population of prospective workers. Home care and home health care demand will drive 21% job growth by 2033, but 59% of agencies will experience shortages. What else will help address care needs?  

Can AI help address future home care worker shortages?

Lifespan versus healthspan – a worrisome difference of 12.4 years in the US.  While many older adults may live longer, well into their 80’s, they may be living with chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and cancer. That difference, known as healthspan, may be as much as 12.4 years in the US, the worst globally, according to a 2024 Mayo Clinic global studyFuture staffing demand will force industry to rethink care strategies. According to BLS, the industry will need 4.5 million care workers by 2029 to meet the demands of older adults. According to an Argentum staffing report, in 2025 alone, another 347,000 caregivers are needed for memory care.  The home care and senior living industries draw from the same population of prospective workers. Home care and home health care demand will drive 21% job growth by 2033, but 59% of agencies will experience shortages.

Future of AI and Home Care -- more observations about the potential

Data about care is becoming the backbone of home care best practice.  In the past (and in some current settings) the home care worker has kept a book in the home for record keeping, bringing it in periodically to get paid. Today, organizations can use captured information about the home care situation, combining it with information aggregated from other clients or individual care recipient history. Data and the governance procedures to maintain its quality and security will, like other uses of AI, become the foundation for realizing its benefits in home care.

Five observations from The Future of AI and Home Care research

Executives see the possibilities for AI in home care. Home care and home health care are labor intensive industries. Hands-on work is historically preceded and followed by paper-based documents and tracking tools. However, it is increasingly likely that home care companies will move quickly past ‘Year One’ of AI as the labor-saving benefits are seen and realized. Interviewees, including agencies and tech firms, note the changes underway. Some are engaged in various pilot projects of AI-enabled tools, others are doing implementations, still others are already deployed. For example, report discussions surfaced the following:

Soon AI Tech Agents will serve older adults in their homes

An AI tech agent on our behalf – predicted long ago. Consider the definition: “An AI agent is a system that perceives its environment, makes decisions, and takes actions to achieve specific goals, often autonomously.” At first look, that seems quite scary and is reminiscent of two quite predictive fictions:  HAL 9000 in 2001 (“Sorry, Dave, I can’t do that”) or the robot in the Robot and Frank (2012) that takes care of every need of a lonely man with dementia, then assists him in committing crimes.  

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