computers, broadband, and social networking

So ya gotta believe Eric Schmidt-- he says the Smartphone is the new PC.  Can you believe it? He must know. The chief Googler says that this device is the new PC, smartphones are outpacing the sale of PCs and yeah, we will get everything we need from this 2 x 4 inch shaky little box. He really said this -- pretty much unquestioned by press who were at the event, the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.  And your car will drive itself, you'll never be lonely -- and you'll be happier. I'm not making that up -- he said it. Maybe he really can predict the future -- when miniaturization rules the world and we have bifocals attached to our bifocals. Just don't drop your PC into the trash on his say-so just yet.  Let's see how effective business people can be with this cute little thing -- let them try to edit a 21-page word document like the one I just sent out with 9 different graphics and 21 end-note references. In fact, I am willing to bet that none of the folks I sent it to are reading it on their iPhone, Droid, or BlackBerry. And folks I know are not updating their multi-sheet Excel files where they track their business performance and they're putting down their phones to work on those large PPT sales decks that they can only see fractionally.

Chinese mandate visiting aging parents. This article is quite intriguing -- the Chinese are now experiencing the law of unintended consequences -- their one-child policy created a downstream eldercare issue. No siblings to split the responsibility, dispersed families and a government worried about the cost of care. So they have proposed a law mandating that family members visit their aging parents at a frequency to be named, plus 'pay medical expenses for the elderly suffering from illnesses and provide them with nursing care." I wonder -- what is a visit -- does Skype count? A phone call? How can this be verified?  This was based on a very real worry by the government that the social net programs will be overwhelmed by 2020 (250 million over the age of 65). So isn't the exact same phenomenon happening in the US?  And what does it mean to the future of safety net programs if 20% of US women had no children at all? 

Older adults have more tech literacy than the WSJ credits.  I wish that I could love this article from the January 12 Wall Street Journal. Unfortunately, grump that I am, not so much. It looks horrendous to see the 'Who's Online' Pew numbers in the chart -- 20% for Older Boomers?  13% of the 65-73 range?  One pauses -- that's not right. Oh yeah, those are the percentages in those age ranges of the Internet-using population. So let's mull that over -- the 65+ population in total represents only 13% of the (entire) population in the US, so it kind of makes sense that 65-73 year olds are only 13% of the Internet-using population. So let's get the rest of the Pew Generations Online data out there for the record - 76% of older boomers (56-64) are online, 58% of those 65-73, and 30% of those 75+. Not too bad, more progress required.

Seeing you with smart eyes that don't blink. Maybe you saw the intriguing article about the numerous and varied applications for computer vision -- some in the market, some just a gleam in the research and vendor eye. But we all want to think about the uses of computer vision -- not just a web camera for Skyping with the grandkids or used for playing cool games, but rather, a camera integrated with specific software that can react to the images seen -- and help with task or make the environment safer.

MetLife today reminds us why aging in place, like long term care rates, will trend upward.  With MetLife's new study just out that updated nursing home, assisted living and home care rates -- it is no wonder that seniors will, whether or not it is appropriate for them, increasingly age outside the nursing home and assisted living realms. On average across the US, nursing home rates have risen 4.6% to $83,585 per year; assisted living is up 5.2% to $39,516 per year and home care aides now cost on average $21/hour.  Home care, in particular, is untenable as 24x7 coverage -- multiplying out to an impossible $183,960/year. Nursing homes have closed, assisted living facilities are not full. Given rising life expectancy, especially for women, combined with rising rates of diabetes and other chronic diseases, we seem to be approaching a conundrum of longer life and poorer choices and options. This represents both an opportunity and a dilemma for today's vendors:  the opportunity -- filling in care gaps of every type with remote monitoring, health and fitness tools, video, and wearable technology.  The dilemma -- recognition that those who will benefit most may be least able to pay for it as currently marketed and priced -- and until adoption is greater, price reductions and bundling into broader solutions is unlikely.