Worth a try – ask a question with a quantifiable result. It seems we have ‘progressed’ from the days of a list of links when asking Google a question. Now we get an ‘AI result’ – that is termed an ‘AI overview.’ How about what percent of people aged 75+ own smartphones? Simple enough. The answer – 31% in ‘foundational benchmarks’. Ah, but those were from 2017. Guess it presumed I wanted that 9-year-old number. Qualifying the question with ‘in 2026’ – the answer is 62-75%. Sounds better, but this is a 2024 number, derived from a Consumer Affairs report, unfortunately labeled as updated in 2026.
Not a hard question? AARP tries annually to quantify technology ownership trends, including smartphone ownership – but that can be even more misleading. Consider the most recent number – same question. According their latest report, 90% of those aged 50+ own smartphones. How many people in the US are aged 50+? Again Google offers a number: 125 million, so AARP’s assertion is that 90% of them own smartphones – thus no market opportunity to sell that device to them. And Pew weighs in at 91%, but only 78% of the 65+ own one. That probably explains why Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile all offer basic phones.
None of these answers are accurate about the overall population. All are based on surveys of subsets of people, fielded at various times over the past few years. They are presumably all are ‘statistically valid’, all disagree somewhat with each other on this very simple question. But if an organization was intending to offer tech training on smartphone use, for example, or a new check-in capability that requires a ‘one touch’ response on a smartphone, what assumptions should they make about their market?
New companies are still launched without an underpinning of large user samples. Over the years, many companies introduced themselves with a product derived from their personal experience - 2014 market entry justification because 'my grandmother fell down.' Sadly, in 2026, not much has changed. Startups are still appearing citing their personal experience: my father, my neighbors, a local conversation group. Their expectation -- that a market exists that matches their personal experience. Given the impossibility of finding an accurate adoption number, who can blame them? And yet, is personal experience a recipe for penetrating a crowded market?
